This is my first forecast or WAG (Wild A** Guess) for 2012, see the updates below.
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[We got 2-3 inches of rain recently which is good but we are still on the dry side over all. But if we get a few inches next week then I'll be happy(er). Right now the maples are looking good with no fungus like last year. The Anthracnose fungi is not going to show itself unless we get a lot more concentrated rain!
First off, I'm not a meteorologist and I'm just giving my opinion to the published projected data. This is also
January and October is a ways off (getting closer). A lot can STILL happen between now and then. Also, what we receive this spring and summer will affect what happens in the way of fall foliage in New England.
I've been looking over the NOAA weather forecast pages and both the Yankee magazine "Old Farmer's Almanac and the Farmer's Almanac. I wanted to see if there were, at this EARLY date, any major differences in their forecasts.
As of Jan the forecasts are...
All of the three are generally unified in their outlook for Sept-Nov 2012. The NOAA weather charts indicate the following:
The temperatures this 2012 foliage season are expected to be similar to fall 2011 which means, warm far into the fall. I will say that we are having a very dry winter so far in southern New England but it’s still early as the winter goes.
I would say that if we don’t get the snow and rain that is projected for Jan – Mar 2012 then we could be hurting once the spring gets here. We usually have several feet of snow by now and that would be translate into 2-4 inches of rain for the trees. and on a balanced year we would see gentle melting and more snow added to what was accumulated in Nov-Dec.
Have you started making your plans yet?I think you should look at the rainfall New England gets between now and April and whether it all comes at once or is drawn out over the next four months.
All at once is bad, if the weather is more balanced then the trees will be happy once things warm up and the greening of New England begins.
If you see a very dry winter/spring then I would hold off making plans for as long as you can.
The reason for this is the outlook for summer is cool and above average rain and this can make up for a dry winter (a little).
The perfect weather we want to see…
Balanced is what I think is best! If we get rain balanced with sun then this is a great beginning to the year. Then as the summer days progress, we need to see a bit of rain mixed in with the warm days. (Yes really!)
Even if the weather leading up to Sept 15th is perfect,…
If we don’t get the cooling temperatures from Canada and the jet stream then we will have the same difficulty that we had in 2011.
Where should you look for color in 2012?
If the Temps stay above average (like 2011) then you will be wanting to concentrate on Northern Maine (Moosehead lake and points north). Next is New Hampshire from the White mountains north to the border and Vermont from White River Junction up to the border.
So much that has to happen between now and October 1st, so if you are considering a run for the color this fall, then bookmark this site and stop back by often. (My opinion will probably change as fast as the weather)
More fall foliage tips
- Don’t discount overcast days for shooting. Cloudy days are great because colors are more saturated.
- On sunny days, try lying on the ground, looking up through a tree with the sun coming through the leaves, and watch the colors explode as you shoot.
- Try focusing on a single branch or one glorious leaf instead of trying to get a panoramic view of an entire valley or mountain range.
- Try using an ordinary pair of polarized sunglasses as a filter by holding it in front of your camera lens to intensify the colors. Also depends on the type camera you have. works with small pocket cameras.
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