[Green means it’s looking good, Yellow is unknown, and red will be affecting foliage, negatively] [note this forecast covers all New England states and not just a specific one or two]
My guess looking forward over the next 108 days. My next update will be early July.
***This update is from June and if you want the most current reports hit my Predictions and reports page where you can find the most current information. There is a tab at the top of the page that will take you there.***
So far we are looking pretty good coming down to the start of fall in New England. I’ve been watching the NOAA predictions and especially those conversations about la Niña and El Niño. These are the weather phenomenon that affects our weather here in the United States. If you want to know more about how these two phenomenons affect our weather feel free to read this Wikipedia on the subject.
I’ve had a few e-mails from the folks at NOAA and the general consensus is that as of this minute in the space time continuum we are looking good for precipitation (just shy of average and should stay that way through the fall).
This affects our chances of seeing Anthracnose on the Maples this year. In 2011 we had a lot of precipitation right into October and this produced the fungus and the cloudy skies made it difficult for the colors to turn at a normal rate.
This leaves the joker in the deck to be our temperatures. Right now the prediction is leaning towards above average temperatures through November. This will affect us by slowing down the turning of the colors. The question that all of you have (and I do too!) is how far above average will it be. (.4 to.5 degrees)
As I’ve said before, if we have a slightly warmer than average September leading into October then I will be happy. This does not mean that we maintain 80° days and 65° nights up until Columbus Day. This means instead of a 65° day, we receive 67° “sunny” days and instead of 33° evening temps we get 35° average temps (in a perfect model this will work out just fine).
The Bottom line as of nowAs long as the weather we receive is balanced, I’m predicting a really beautiful fall. BUT! Anytime we get adverse weather which causes too much of anything, then we can begin to worry about what our fall will look like. Too much, or too little sun, too much, or too little rain, (Let’s not think about hurricanes and snowstorms). Then it will throw a wrench into the prediction.
The climate model shows the temps at (.4 to.5 degrees) above normal. This equates to only being 2 or 3 days behind statistical norms for peak fall foliage in any given area. So we’re looking real good for this foliage season.
I’ll keep checking with the folks who know weather and if you keep checking back, I’ll keep putting my reputation on the line and try to make an educated guess, I mean a reliable prediction.
but people call me Jeff Foliage.
I have several pages that I write blogs for such as: http://www.4cornersnewengland.com/
My most popular blog is for Leaf peepers: Jeff Foliage.com.
I live in Salem, Massachusetts and work as a blogger and Travel Photographer. I'm also the founder of the New England Photography Guild.
Feel free to visit me on my blogs and see what life in New England is like.
I started with Yankee Magazine as their first blogger on everything fall foliage. Now I blog on my own blog on my favorite subject, telling leaf peepers where the fall foliage is showing up in New England and helping them (to some extent) plan their fall foliage vacations.