Fall foliage prediction 2012-June update



 

my foliage meter to visually show where we are for this falls foliage season

[Green means it's looking good, Yellow is unknown, and red will be affecting foliage, negatively]  [note  this forecast covers all New England states and not just a specific one or two]

My guess looking forward over the next 108 days. My next update will be early July.

***This update is from June and if you want the most current reports hit my Predictions and reports page where you can find the most current information. There is a tab at the top of the page that will take you there.***

So far we are looking pretty good coming down to the start of fall in New England.  I’ve been watching the NOAA predictions and especially those conversations about la Niña and El Niño.  These are the weather phenomenon that affects our weather here in the United States.  If you want to know more about how these two phenomenons affect our weather feel free to read this Wikipedia on the subject.

I’ve had a few e-mails from the folks at NOAA and the general consensus is that as of this minute in the space time continuum :-) we are looking good for precipitation (just shy of average and should stay that way through the fall).

pond illuminated by sun peering out from behind clouds for a second

far side of pond lit up and reflecting NH fall foliage

This affects our chances of seeing Anthracnose on the Maples this year.  In 2011 we had a lot of precipitation right into October and this produced the fungus and the cloudy skies made it difficult for the colors to turn at a normal rate.




This leaves the joker in the deck to be our temperatures.  Right now the prediction is leaning towards above average temperatures through November.   This will affect us by slowing down the turning of the colors. The question that all of you have (and I do too!) is how far above average will it be. (.4 to.5 degrees)

As I’ve said before, if we have a slightly warmer than average September leading into October then I will be happy.  This does not mean that we maintain 80° days and 65° nights up until Columbus Day.  This means instead of a 65° day, we receive 67° “sunny” days and instead of 33° evening temps we get 35° average temps (in a perfect model this will work out just fine).

The Bottom line as of now

rocks in the pond with falls glorious foliage color reflecting on the water

Rocky foliage reflected

As long as the weather we receive is balanced, I’m predicting a really beautiful fallBUT! Anytime we get adverse weather which causes too much of anything, then we can begin to worry about what our fall will look like.  Too much, or too little sun, too much, or too little rain, (Let’s not think about hurricanes and snowstorms). Then it will throw a wrench into the prediction.

The climate model shows the temps at (.4 to.5 degrees) above normal. This equates to only being 2 or 3 days behind statistical norms for peak fall foliage in any given area. So we’re looking real good for this foliage season.

I’ll keep checking with the folks who know weather and if you keep checking back, I’ll keep putting my reputation on the line and try to make an educated guess, I mean a reliable prediction.

Jeff foliage

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Comments

Fall foliage prediction 2012-June update — 12 Comments

  1. Pingback: 2010 fall foliage was good and my 2011 prediction! - Traveling Scenic New England | Traveling Scenic New England

  2. Pingback: 2012 fall foliage forecast for New England - Exploring New England's fall foliage

  3. Pingback: New England fall foliage forecast, May 2012 - Exploring New England's fall foliage

  4. Oh, I hope you are right! I have been dreaming of visiting Maine during Fall Foliage for years and this year I decided I am doing it. I already have a deposit down for a cabin in Richmond, Maine from October 6-13. I think I am in a good location to be able to travel up-state, or even south if I need to find the color. What are your thoughts on those dates?

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    • I sure hope I’m right also!!! Boy will it be embarrassing if I’m not..

      But this looks like you have followed my advice and picked a central location. I hope you picked someplace that is comfortable with fireplaces and nice owners that make you feel at home…

      Why? This is what I look for and want to have when I come back off the road after driving around.

      I just posted an answer to someone else’s question and they will be in the same area about the same time. and the image in their article shows a view of Camden from Mount Battie on a seriously late and miserable year. read it and see what I talk about. http://wp.me/p1wtar-WC

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  5. Pingback: Fall foliage question from reader - Exploring New England's fall foliage

  6. I live in Western NY (near the PA border), and on June 4th, I began noticing a few fall leaves on different trees. (maples as well as another type of tree but I don’t know what kind it is)I am perplexed by this and am wondering what could be causing this. Thanks!

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    • Hi Williams, near Route 20 or 90?
      Generally you have to look at the overall health of the trees in question. Are they fully leafed (yes or no) If no and they are sparsely covered in leaves then they maybe stressed by the environment or damage to the tree.
      If yes (fully leafed) are the red tinged leaves only on the highest branches? If they are only on the tips of branches and high up then I might guess (not having seen a picture) that these are new growth. I can see out my back door red leaves on the oaks and a maple.
      The leaves are not entirely red and just tinged that way. If the leaves are turning entirely red and not just at the tips but well down into the canopy and near into the trunk then I will say take a picture and sen it to me…
      The only thing I can assume is that in this later case that something is stressing the trees and causing them to turn early (waaaay early). Are they standing in water or are they near a factory pouring out toxic waste (I grew up in Erie so I know how that happens).
      Either way you will have to look at all these factors and see what applies.
      I would love to hear back again and let me know what you find.
      Jeff Foliage

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      • Thank you for the wealth of information regarding the fall leaves. I would say that some of the trees are probably the new growth you described, as the tops of the trees looked “tinged.” Others have more red than just a “tinged” look and are much lower on the tree. However, I have not continued to notice additional new ones “turning” red. Yes, we are south of Rte 90….close to Rte 17/86. Thanks so much for your help! P.S. I noticed today that the leaves that were lower and looked quite red are “less red” now.

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  7. Pingback: Fall foliage question from reader - Exploring New England's fall foliage

  8. Pingback: 2012 fall foliage forecast for New England - Exploring New England's fall foliage

I'd love to hear what you think!