2012 New England Fall Foliage prediction
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The July fall foliage update

This update is from July and if you want the most current reports hit my Predictions and reports page where you can find the most current information. There is a tab at the top of the page that will take you there.

The indicators from both the NOAA Climatology prediction center and Yankee’s Farmers almanac are both calling for about the same thing. (a little warmer but average rain)…

Precipitation

The rain has equal chances of being above or below normal.

As we go through the next 60+ days I’m watching for where we are getting rainfall. So far we have been spared the very hot, 100 degree weather of the nation’s mid and western sections but if we do get hit by it then we will need a good follow up of rain.

We don’t have any real reserves of water in the ground and up to this point we were getting 1 or 2 days of rain out of every 10 days. As it stands right now we are not due to get any rain until this coming weekend. After 7-10 days of no rain I’m hoping to see 1-2 inches fall over all of the North East.

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Temperature

The temperature forecast for Sept, Oct and Nov is looking to be a little above average. And as I said before We want to see a balanced amount of rain and no hurricanes running over us (dropping salt water on the leaves).
If we get that, then the slight (.03 degrees) warmer temps won’t stop the New England fall colors!

My Fall Foliage Prediction!

Ok my prediction for the fall foliage arriving in Vermont and New Hampshire should be within historic norms.
This means pleasing color should be arriving in the northern areas of Vermont (NEK) and New Hampshire no earlier than 25 September with peak fall foliage color about a week later in the higher elevations of the Northeast kingdom and north of the white mountains of New Hampshire.  1-3 Oct are looking like good dates to be up north.
Over in Maine I believe during the same period, we’ll have good color from Mount Katahdin, up through Baxter State Park to St. John River and points north.

Disclaimer

As comfortable as I am with this prediction for fall color there’s still a big chance that mother nature will do her very best to prove me wrong.  So please don’t go changing your reservations based exclusively on my prediction.  I can and have been wrong over the years.  All of my research comes from the NOAA climatology prediction folks and Yankee magazine’s farmer’s almanac.

Jeff “Foliage” Folger



The colors for Precipitation and drought are tinging yellow since those are my big worry items for now. Temperature will stay yellow until further notice unless NOAA says some factor is lowering it.

fall foliage meter for July 2012

fall foliage meter for July 2012

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Comments

2012 New England Fall Foliage prediction — 8 Comments

    • I appreciate that.. I’m watching the weather and we’re getting a good bit of on again and off again rain over this week in New England and I’m hopeful that this will help the areas that are under stress from a lack of rain. My August forecast will address this.

      Jeff Foliage

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    • It depends… I mean that sincerely, it really does. I just posted on this very subject on my Google plus page https://plus.google.com/b/114408764788982913276/114408764788982913276/posts/p/pub
      You can read the analogy there. but peak isn’t an on off switch, it’s more of a dimmer switch. and there are billions of them spread over the landscape. each tree has one, each hillside has one, each valley has one and mother nature turns them up as she see’s fit.
      Sometimes she turns them straight from green to brown (we really hope that doesn’t happen to often! Most times she turns them in slow increments until they are glowing in peak fall colors and then she slowly (we again hope) turns them back down and they fade to brown or fall off to prvide a colorful carpet of leaves.
      What this means is that on October 1st Franconia Notch maybe at a colorful peak and Sugar hill may be close but not there yet. A few days later Franconia notch is fading but pretty and Sugar hill is glowing in the morning sunshine. Are these going to be good dates for these areas? I think so.. More importantly and to answer your question, maybe… I don’t know! :-) I still think this will be a very pretty season but trying to hit the bulls-eye of peak fall foliage? that’s a hard target and elusive.. I know, I try every year and a few times I’ve been successful and other years? Well let’s just say it’s all about the chase.
      Also if this was easy and everybody was able to do it every year… well it wouldn’t be so much fun if it was easy!
      Jeff Foliage

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    • I just try to explain the in’s and out’s of finding peak fall foliage. There is no exact science that permits me some inside knowledge that puts my in the path of fall’s peak colors and it just washes over me… interesting visual like I just had a accident in the paint isle at Home depot.. :-)

      But I try to give my best guess and where I would position myself on those give dates as of this minute. If I got to Lincoln (on my way to Franconia Notch and the color started to fade and the trees are getting bare then I will stop and get off there and head over to Woodstock NH or Sugar Hill and if that is still faded then I’ll just on 16 and head south connecting with other southerly roads until I find the peak.
      This is how it works and why I say the same spots on certain days because I would start there and work my way north or south depending on what I find…
      I really do try to help… :-) I just hope I’m close :-)

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