The July fall foliage update
This update is from July and if you want the most current reports hit my Predictions and reports page where you can find the most current information. There is a tab at the top of the page that will take you there.
The rain has equal chances of being above or below normal.
As we go through the next 60+ days I’m watching for where we are getting rainfall. So far we have been spared the very hot, 100 degree weather of the nation’s mid and western sections but if we do get hit by it then we will need a good follow up of rain.
We don’t have any real reserves of water in the ground and up to this point we were getting 1 or 2 days of rain out of every 10 days. As it stands right now we are not due to get any rain until this coming weekend. After 7-10 days of no rain I’m hoping to see 1-2 inches fall over all of the North East.
The temperature forecast for Sept, Oct and Nov is looking to be a little above average. And as I said before We want to see a balanced amount of rain and no hurricanes running over us (dropping salt water on the leaves).
If we get that, then the slight (.03 degrees) warmer temps won’t stop the New England fall colors!
My Fall Foliage Prediction!
Ok my prediction for the fall foliage arriving in Vermont and New Hampshire should be within historic norms.
This means pleasing color should be arriving in the northern areas of Vermont (NEK) and New Hampshire no earlier than 25 September with peak fall foliage color about a week later in the higher elevations of the Northeast kingdom and north of the white mountains of New Hampshire. 1-3 Oct are looking like good dates to be up north.
Over in Maine I believe during the same period, we’ll have good color from Mount Katahdin, up through Baxter State Park to St. John River and points north.
As comfortable as I am with this prediction for fall color there’s still a big chance that mother nature will do her very best to prove me wrong. So please don’t go changing your reservations based exclusively on my prediction. I can and have been wrong over the years. All of my research comes from the NOAA climatology prediction folks and Yankee magazine’s farmer’s almanac.
Jeff “Foliage” Folger
The colors for Precipitation and drought are tinging yellow since those are my big worry items for now. Temperature will stay yellow until further notice unless NOAA says some factor is lowering it.