2013 fall forecast for New England.
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New England fall foliage forecast.

Greetings fall foliage aficionados, it’s almost May and it’s time for me  to update my New England fall foliage forecast.

I’m looking around New England and thinking about our fall foliage colors and what they will look like. I’m sure many of you are wondering the same thing and wondering if this autumn will be when you should!! travel to New England.

Current indicators

Well, I was talking to my father in law who was a dairy farmer for his whole life and I asked him, “what indicated a good year going into the autumn”. (Remember, I still believe a balanced spring/summer will give us a good autumn season).

Foliage Meter as of 26 April 2013 based on factors such as the NOAA climate prediction center and the old farmers almanac

Foliage Meter as of 26 April 2013

He said if he got a good amount of rain in April then the summer growing season was generally good for farming. There’s no direct evidence that this will mean a great fall foliage season but as the reported rain fall has been “decent” so far this April, we should hopefully have a good harvest this autumn.

The spring has yet to turn really warm and comfortable and this may foreshadow a cooler summer (the jury is out on that just yet). This would be like 2008, (70s didn’t show until May, the 4th of July was chilly and August had a few days of 67 degrees) The summer never really warmed up yet when we went into autumn the colors were very nice!  I looked through my fall foliage images for this year and it seems to me that there are a lot of overcast days. The image at the bottom of the page was taken on such a day.

Drought conditions to keep an eye on

The climate prediction folks at NOAA are saying that the drought in the mid section of the country is slightly less this summer and it looks like the North East should be within normal tolerances. But as of 23 April the US Drought monitor is showing a few areas of Upstate New York, Eastern VT and Western NH along the Connecticut River valley are showing “Abnormally dry” conditions. Also CT and RI are showing the same. MA and ME are not showing any drought issues at this time.

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The foliage forecast as of April 2013

Saco river covered bridge

Saco river covered bridge with New England fall foliage around it

I’m feeling pretty good about our upcoming autumn, as of right now. I think if we can have a dry September going into October, AND if the temps don’t go too far above normal then we should see a really good/great fall foliage season for New England.

This forecast stipulates the following, if Mother Nature decides to rain from 1 Oct to 15 Oct then please complain to Mother Nature for changing the rules and not me. Because even though in 2012 we had a dry summer going into 1 October, we ended up with waaaaaay too many days of rain for my liking between 1 and 15 Oct. But! we still had very nice color showing up through the cloudy days and rain…
Photography Prints
So, as of April, everything is looking good for this fall foliage season in New England!

 

Jeff “Foliage” Folger
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