2013 fall foliage forecast update
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The 2013 fall foliage forecast for New England

Well June has arrived and truth be told in only a few days we will pass the point of the longest day and the days will start to shorten as we head on that downward slide into winter! (Booo.. Hissss.) I know, I know… BUT! at least we have the autumn to look forward to!

This fall foliage forecast update or autumn forecast is what I think we’ll get... (your results may be different and past results do not guarantee future results) :-) Yes this is a disclaimer… Until Mother Nature lets me in on her plans in detail, I’m still guessing.

Fall foliage forecast from my sources

The Boulders in the Litchfield hills of CT in late October

In New England's Connecticut, Litchfield hills you see the landscape transform into a tapestry of fall color

Fall colors come to Connecticut

Yankee’s Old Farmer’s almanac

I’m hoping the OFA will be more accurate than they have been so far this June. We are recording the wettest June in many years.  OFA states “Summer will be drier than normal, with near-normal temperatures. The hottest periods will occur in early July and mid-August. September and October will be warmer and drier than normal”.

I’m hoping for the drier Sept/Oct than normal. This will concentrate the sugars and give us some really bright colors. (more on this down below)

NOAA Climate prediction for August-Sept-October 2013

Ok! The scientist’s who factor in the el Nino and the la Nina effects and the ocean temps and solar flares and butterfly wing effects are still stating an equal chance a dry or wet Aug-Oct and slightly warmer than normal.

What Jeff Foliage thinks about all of this!

It’s still looking good but one thing I’m watching carefully is how much rain we’re getting. there is a fungus that will bloom if we don’t get a long dry spell. It causes the black spot on the sugar maples and the leaves will drop early. The good news is we are looking at 7 days with no rain. So I’m hopeful we won’t see it make its way into our beloved maples.

The downside to all these long-range forecasts is that they can say dry but we can still get rain. so make your plans with this in mind. dryer than normal only means we don’t get as much rain! It doesn’t mean it will be bone dry, so your weekend outing could still be a damp one. (Bring the ponchos for your day pack just in case)


*Factoid* in 2012 we had a long dry summer with many water dependant crops (apples) failing due to lack of rain. This caused some outrageous color in early Oct north of the White Mountains. If we go back into a dry period in Sept then I will be very happy especially if we go into Oct with only occasional showers. (best case)

Timing for this fall *IMPORTANT*

Now, all through this spring, everything has been delayed and I’m betting now we’ll see a delay of the real colors. I’m thinking that we’ll be at least a week later compared to last year..

What this means, is that instead of color showing in mid to late Sept, I don’t think we’ll see any tremendous amount of color until 29 Sept, or even 3 Oct.

What this could mean is more colors happening in larger areas. My favorite term that I love to hate is Peak fall foliage. I hate it because my definition is all trees within your sight are all changing and few to none are green or bare. This might be one occasion where we might see an example of “Peak fall color in New England”.

My Foliage Meter

Right now I’m going to stick with my earlier outlook and my fun meter isn’t quite pegged to the firewall but I’m feeling pretty good about the upcoming fall in New England. and my 2013 fall foliage forecast update is looking good.

Foliage Meter as of 26 April 2013 based on factors such as the NOAA climate prediction center and the old farmers almanac

Foliage Meter as of 26 April 2013

Jokers in the deck to think about

Keep these things in mind though… The weather center is forecasting more hurricanes for this summer into the fall so be watchful of what comes up the eastern seaboard, towards New England.

2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary

NOAA’s 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that an above-normal season is most likely, with the possibility that the season could be very active. The outlook calls for a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

Jeff “Foliage” Folger

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Comments

2013 fall foliage forecast update — 3 Comments

  1. I’m all in on your prediction Jeff and hoping that you’re right on target, many different places around the White Mountains that I’m targeting right now to catch and photograph some stunning New England colors, September can’t get here soon enough.

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  2. Pingback: Fall Foliage 2013 - Leafpeepers.com

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