I’ve found that everybody comes to this page first so I’m creating it as a landing page. Below you will find my first fall foliage forecast (better known as a prediction) for 2015. After that you will find a section that will list each update during the rest of the year.. Questions? leave a comment!
First Fall Foliage Forecast (prediction) for 2015
My first consideration is NOAA with their Climate Prediction and how the fall foliage forecast shapes up 9 months out. Second I look to Yankee Magazine and their Old Farmers Almanac site.
In my 2014 recap I made a tentative 2015 fall foliage forecast, where I mentioned that the folks at NOAA were calling for “mild” El Niño conditions for the 2014/15 winter.
What this should mean is lots of snow and a warmer winter. Well our December was one of the warmest in recent history with no real cold (20F) until after Christmas and it was the 10th rainiest in Boston since record keeping was started. So they were pretty close so far
The current El Niño forecast is calling for average precipitation and above average temps through March. Many New Englanders may be doing their happy dance at this point but it may only mean the temperatures will be in the upper 20s to the low 30s and lots of heavy, wet snow. Hmmm. I think the pitter, patter of happy feet is fading away.
I’ve looked at NOAA’s predictions for the Northeast and it’s pretty much consistent through November. All of their forecasts call for above average temps and average rainfall and what this could mean is trouble!
Now the OFA Forecast
The Old Farmer’s Almanac is calling for an above average snow fall and cold up through March. June through August will be hot and MOST importantly they say! “September and October will be warmer and slightly wetter than normal“. These are not optimal conditions for the fall colors to develop.
The Old Farmer’s almanac has a funny little video if you want to click this link on this years weather forecast.
My thoughts for this autumn and the fall colors
I suggest you read my July 2014 fall foliage forecast, why you may ask? I’m glad you brought this up. Basically I thought we were heading for the best fall foliage season ever in 2014. We had seasonally average temps and average rainfall forecast, so all was good, right?
Even with all that going for us and we had cool temps in Sept which started us off with great colors in mid to late September, a weak El Niño started to affect us and it rain weekly all of October. This combined with temperatures that never really got chilly enough meant the colors took their time developing. (If at all and always a bad thing)
So the really bright brilliant fall colors that developed in late September to the first few days in October were knocked down by the first rains. Then before they could really regain their brilliance, they were hit with more rain. If you’ve read through my blog for any time at all, you will know this is my biggest concern for our fall colors. So that was 2014, what about 2015?
The bottom line for fall foliage
At this point, I feel we’re going to have good colors this fall, based on the current forecast conditions. It may be a repeat of 2014 with weekly rains affecting the fall colors. Which means you need a plan “B” for your fall foliage vacation. please read my planning articles (the right side of the page that says planning) to get ideas on how to prepare for rains or worse during your autumn exploration of New England. Not to mention locations to explore!
I do need to reiterate!!! The margin of error here is massive! I mean its 9 months away, so you need to keep checking back each month. OR, you can subscribe to my blog (top center of this page) and all my articles will be sent to your and you won’t have to bookmark my blog (but please do).
I also have a New England fall foliage Facebook page that a lot of people like to check in with me on. I also love to see other people’s images posted there and some of them I will share to the front of the page to make sure everyone sees them. So come in and show us what your autumn explorations were like!
This section will show links (down below) for each of my fall foliage forecasts that I write in the coming months. The list will update automatically so you can bookmark this page or subscribe to my blog and each of the forecasts will be delivered to you email inbox.
Fall Foliage Forecasts 2015 Newest on top!
2015 foliage Forecast
Forecasts for the coming season based on long range weather forecasts from the NOAA climatology and prediction center.
- Fall foliage outlook for New England
- June Foliage Forecast for 2015
- Best fall foliage outlook for 2015
- March update to 2015 Foliage Forecast
- Fall Foliage Forecast 2015
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but people call me Jeff Foliage.
I have several pages that I write blogs for such as: http://www.4cornersnewengland.com/
My most popular blog is for Leaf peepers: Jeff Foliage.com.
I live in Salem, Massachusetts and work as a blogger and Travel Photographer. I'm also the founder of the New England Photography Guild.
Feel free to visit me on my blogs and see what life in New England is like.
I started with Yankee Magazine as their first blogger on everything fall foliage. Now I blog on my own blog on my favorite subject, telling leaf peepers where the fall foliage is showing up in New England and helping them (to some extent) plan their fall foliage vacations.