Update to my 2015 fall foliage forecast
Well, after this winter I’m just hoping we survive to see spring let alone the fall colors of autumn. I discussed with weather forecaster, David Unger at NOAA in the climate prediction office and he sounds like me and my foliage forecast… 🙂 “This far out we are looking at trends and not until August will the data become more, firm”.
“But then fall comes, it stays awhile like an old friend that you have missed.”
― Stephen King
The trends run like this for October in northern NH. In various years over the past 20+ yrs the temps range from 49F to 57F with a sharp cool spike in 2009 of 48F but the past three years have been consistently warmer with the averages in the mid-fifties (55F-57F) but we may be starting a slide towards cooler. Before you get too excited we won’t know those results until, you guessed it, AFTER this autumn. Here is my first fall foliage forecast for 2015.
I suspect that we will see a bright fall color arrival in mid to late Sept, IF the rains keep to a minimum (on the dry side) then this would mean that the last week in Sept could be colorful in the usual areas…
But Jeff, what are the usual areas?
I’m glad you asked! Even though I will guarantee one thing… That I will see posts of early fall color or questions about us having an early fall in mid-August and by mid Sept somebody in Camden Maine or coastal Rhode Island will post a glorious maple tree, all in red and orange, these are not the normal areas for mid to late Sept. (I’m not saying you won’t see leaves, branches or an entire tree turning, it’s just not normal).
How to use my foliage forecast
Treat this “foliage forecast meter” as simply my gut feeling. There is no empirical data as of now (its too early).
If you want to have the best odds of finding peak fall foliage during the time period of mid to late Sept, then this means you will want to place yourself up on the Canadian border. Places like, The North East Kingdom of Vermont (NEK), The Great North Woods of New Hampshire and North of Mount Katahdin in Maine.
As we move towards the 1st of October, you will move south to the White mountains, Middlebury Vermont and Rangeley Maine AND points north from there will still have color. But, the leading edge is advancing south across New England.
The next few weeks in October (if we have little rain) the colors will continue to develop further to the south and east towards the coastline. By mid-October you will be exploring Massachusetts and the quiet corner of Connecticut and northern Rhode Island.
As you look at my Foliage forecast meter above you will note that it’s fairly neutral. The jokers in the deck are the Temps and Precipitation. To much rain means tar spot and Anthracnose could spread widely through the maples. As we go through the melt off over the next month here in New England and on through April and May, you will want to see how much rain we get or! do we go through a drying trend.
Also do the temps rise through May and give us a comfortable spring. If this happens I will start to nudge the needle more to the green. But if we have more rain and a colder spring then we’ll move more to the yellow. We’re still too far out to have any real feel for which way things are going.
My next report will be late April or at the latest the first week in May.
Oh I still haven’t heard back from the winner I picked on the 27th of February and I’m sending another email out today!Jeff "Foliage" Folger You can purchase images by visiting my Fine Art Gallery websites
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but people call me Jeff Foliage.
I have several pages that I write blogs for such as: http://www.4cornersnewengland.com/
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I live in Salem, Massachusetts and work as a blogger and Travel Photographer. I'm also the founder of the New England Photography Guild.
Feel free to visit me on my blogs and see what life in New England is like.
I started with Yankee Magazine as their first blogger on everything fall foliage. Now I blog on my own blog on my favorite subject, telling leaf peepers where the fall foliage is showing up in New England and helping them (to some extent) plan their fall foliage vacations.