Well its time for my May, early fall foliage outlook.
But first a word about my Contest. Did you get your email?
I just sent out my notifications letter to a lucky someone, if this is you first time reading my blog, then I’ll give a short intro. I travel all over New England and from time to time I pick up items like bumper stickers, or hats or mugs or anything that says “NEW ENGLAND”. Then I pick at random from all my subscribers and send them an email from Jeff.Foliage@ gmail.com.
If you are just now registering then put this in your safe list and use a “real” email address that you check a few times or more a month.
It’s as simple as that! Read my articles and learn interesting things about where to find the best fall colors and you might get a free New England item in the mail, can’t get better than that.
Questions? Let me know!
Now! my fall foliage outlook for May 2015
I’ve heard from a few folks but the numbers seem down from past years, I hope this is because you’re able to find things on my website easier this year.
Well I’ve consulted with the powers to be for my fall foliage outlook and NO, that isn’t Mother Nature… I left a voice mail with her but I haven’t heard back from her yet. So, I’m left with consulting the NOAA Climate Prediction folks.
First I have actually chatted with them and even they have pointed out that these charts are not firm but more like maple syrup and not until mid August will they be more confident of their predictions for the New England fall foliage time period, or September to November.
Now for August, Sept, Oct (or 3.5 months out)
I was ok with these charts because the Temps show going into August and maybe Sept, that there are EC or equal chances for above or below temps during this time but that will change in the 4.5 month outlook. The Precipitation outlook is also “EC” so our rain could also go either way. But what I’m watching is the below normal rain a bit further south in the Carolinas.
The Important months (4.5 months out)
As you can see here, the Climate folks are leaning towards the same warm autumn temps that have plagued us the past couple of years during October. also they show the rain issue in the Carolinas being less of a factor but again I’m watching this.
What does this mean for fall foliage as of now?
My fall foliage outlook is that we will see slightly cooler temps as we go through September. This will start the color change in various areas earlier than normal, BUT! it does not mean the fall colors will be showing peak or even close to it. It just means that the conditions will be conducive for trees that were all ready to turn early, will start turning, a bit earlier than we are used to. Trees that are stressed from insects, or drought or other environmental factors will turn early. The rest of the trees will wait until the climate factors cause them to turn on their normal schedule. (normal is, as normal does)
I also think we will see nice to good colors a bit earlier. So instead of 27 Sept-29 Sept in the NorthEast Kingdom or North of the white mountains we will probably see bright pockets of fall colors around 23-24 Sept.
Right now I see the trees as being healthy from a good hard winter (I’m one of the few in New England that feels this is a good thing) And with the record-breaking snows we should have a balanced water levels feeding the trees and that means the leaves will have strong connections to the branches and be less likely to come down in slight breezes. It will take rain showers mixed with rain to bring them down.
As we come into October assuming strong leaf connections, we may see a slowdown in fall color development. and this means if the colors come down in a wind storm, then it takes longer for the next crop of green leaves to turn colors.
What will make the leaves turn quicker and brighter?
We want to see bright sunny days so that the colors develop quick and with bright shades of color. Cloudy days (with or without rain) mean the color that develop will be slow to show up and not as bright.
I know it’s a lot of IFs, in those conditions and that is the way it always is. If you want a guarantee, well I can’t help you, but these charts and my interpretations of the data will hopefully give you some ideas of how to pick your locations. I have many other articles on getting ahead of the fall colors and what you might do if rain happens. Check my Archives page and my locations by state for scenic drives and locations to visit.Jeff "Foliage" Folger You can purchase images by visiting my Fine Art Gallery websites
- My Gallery on Fine Art America
- *NEW* We created a new Fall foliage forum
- Join my New England Fall Foliage page on Facebook
- Follow @Foliage_Reports on Twitter
but people call me Jeff Foliage.
I have several pages that I write blogs for such as: http://www.4cornersnewengland.com/
My most popular blog is for Leaf peepers: Jeff Foliage.com.
I live in Salem, Massachusetts and work as a blogger and Travel Photographer. I'm also the founder of the New England Photography Guild.
Feel free to visit me on my blogs and see what life in New England is like.
I started with Yankee Magazine as their first blogger on everything fall foliage. Now I blog on my own blog on my favorite subject, telling leaf peepers where the fall foliage is showing up in New England and helping them (to some extent) plan their fall foliage vacations.