My July fall foliage outlook
My first part of this fall foliage outlook will be for those who love to geek out over the statistics of El Niño and computer models of weather prediction. Those who just want “what I think will happen in Sept and October?” go to the last section for my gut feeling and the fall foliage outlook for New England.
Contest winner for June!
The winner for June was Skip Redfield. But I’ve not heard back from Skip! (multiple emails have been sent) So if I don’t hear back prior to announcing the July comment to win article, Skip’s prize will roll over to the next winner and they get to pick TWO items.
So if you are going to comment to win make sure you add email@example.com to your safe email list. SKIP..Where are you???
NOAA models for August through October
I’ve weighed through pages of statistical data (snooze…) and my take away is this: El Niño has been on the rise since January and aside from a dip in May, it has maintained and will maintain through the end or the year (read about El Niño here). The result will be above average temps and equal chances for above/below or average precipitation.
Temperature and precipitation models for Aug-Oct 2015
I also have looked at the Sept, Oct, Nov models and they show little variation from the Aug-Oct models. So unless Mother nature steps in to take an active role, the results this fall should be as noted below.
As of the end of May NOAA is predicting a below-normal Atlantic Hurricane Season this year. Read why in this NOAA article. But my take away from that is less hurricanes is not no hurricanes. So I’ll still be watching the tropical disturbances until the end of October.
Do you want to check real-time conditions in New England from your computer? Check my webcams of New England.
Here is a link to the NOAA climate prediction pages so you can view them for yourself.
My gut feeling for the fall foliage outlook
What these data points mean to me is that the foliage season may be a little slow to start and develop (bad) but it may be drawn out over a longer period (good). If we get lots of sunny days then we will still see good color development. If we get lots of cloudy days (with or without rain) then this will impact the colors the most.
So far the upside is, the current rainfall is slightly below normal but it’s close enough to the average, that the leaves should have a good strong bond to the branches. This also means they will be slower to drop while they are developing color. (resistant to wind and rain).
Also the threat from Anthracnose is low. (This is a fungus that attacks the maple leaves by turning the edges brown and they prematurely fall off.) It’s normal to have a little of this but it gets much worse if we get rain for a week or two straight) but so far we’re looking good there. (again knock on wood)
The average rainfall is what always worries me because if we have less cloudy days and more sunny days so the colors will be brighter. Unfortunately there is no way to predict this, until the week or two prior.
Also the NOAA folks are calling for less hurricane potential this hurricane season. This “hopefully” means that we’ll have less big winds coming through New England to bring down the leaves.
Things that may invalidate this or vary the results…
If September cools down abnormally causing the leaves in areas outside of northern New England to turn early. This happened in 2012 but nothing is pointing to that happening as of now. One of the “few” hurricanes runs over the top of New England (Think hurricane Sandy in 2012). Hopefully none of these events happen… (knock on wood) 🙂
So my outlook is good but guarded. We should have a long season of fall colors but there may be less “peak” fall foliage found and more green mixed in with the colors you do find. (Not always a bad thing)Jeff "Foliage" Folger You can purchase images by visiting my Fine Art Gallery websites
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but people call me Jeff Foliage.
I have several pages that I write blogs for such as: http://www.4cornersnewengland.com/
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I live in Salem, Massachusetts and work as a blogger and Travel Photographer. I'm also the founder of the New England Photography Guild.
Feel free to visit me on my blogs and see what life in New England is like.
I started with Yankee Magazine as their first blogger on everything fall foliage. Now I blog on my own blog on my favorite subject, telling leaf peepers where the fall foliage is showing up in New England and helping them (to some extent) plan their fall foliage vacations.