Fall Foliage Forecast 2016
Welcome my fellow leaf peepers! I have been recuperating from an exhausting fall foliage season (driving 5,500 miles). The 2015 year brought us an almost historic level El Niño that caused many of us troubles. I looked back at my 2014/2015 foliage forecast and saw that my forecast should have looked more closely at the El Niño effect on temperature.
I was amazed at how late the foliage season came in and all based on one factor, Temperature. The northeast may have had a drought which is also a big factor to consider (Boston is 8″ behind where we should be) BUT! Temperature played a bigger role in my opinion.
This resulted in a slow start to the fall foliage season and also a slow but steady development of the fall colors. We, here in the northeast are still feeling the results of the El Niño effect on temps. We are just now approaching temperatures that can be considered normal.
Overall I was finding 75% or above fall colors around Columbus day when the same areas would have been peak or at least near peak by 1 Oct.
Looking ahead and the foliage forecast for 2016
El Niño and La Niña are peaks in the ocean water temps. We have been at just below a historic high El Niño and this will hold through the spring. As of this time the NOAA climate prediction folks are saying after this, we will be slowly heading towards a ENSO Neutral condition.
I sent them an email to ask what this means exactly for us but nothing has come back. In the meantime, my take on this balance between El Niño and La Niña will provide us with temps going into August-October that are only a few degrees above normal and near average rainfall for the season. (Note we are seeing below normal rainfall in eastern Mass and many parts of New England) (as of 14 July…)
This “should” mean that we will see a cooling down in Sept (in line with historic norms) and we should see the beginnings of color developing in the White and Green mountains by mid September. (18th) and about a week later good color should be showing up north of the Greens/White mountains and North of Greenfield Maine, (think WAAAY North).
Areas like Peacham VT, Stark NH, and over into Greenfield ME should be looking good around 1 Oct 2016. With the color progressing south quickly from there. I think the colors may develop quicker this year so planning to to arrive late (mid October) in the White mountains, northern Green Mtns or northern Maine are not what I suggest.
IF, the colors come in fast then they will be easily taken down by wind and rain. October has been, historically speaking, a time when we start to get weekly rain showers. I wish I could talk Mother Nature to keeping late Sept and Oct dry but she does what she wants.
Fall foliage forecast section
Under here you will find links to all my newer fall foliage forecasts. If you bookmark this page, you will be able to come back and check what is happening with the New England weather and how it may affect the 2016 fall foliage season. Or just go to the top of the page and subscribe to my blog and you will be notified when ever I write a new article.
2016 fall foliage calendar
I have a couple calendars left and if you want to look at 12 months of the fall colors in New England then you may want to put in for one. If you are interested send me note with a good email address to my contact page. I will send an invoice via paypal. The cost is $16 and I pay the shipping. It will be on a first come basis but if enough people request, I will create another order. It will take about 2 weeks for me to receive another order and ship them out.
Factors that we may see going forward into 2016.
- We’ve been under El Niño for 3+ years and we may be swinging back towards La Niña with conditions heading cooler and wetter???
- Wet and warm winter in New England (means lots of snow) Boooo…
- Warm and possibly a dry spring going into summer but after that???
Wondering where my comment give away is?
I have temporarily moved it to my Fine Art newsletter on Fine Art America. If you go to my page and sign up there
http://vistaphotography.com/subscribewebsiteemaillist.html you will automatically be entered in the contest. In April 2016 the contest will come back here to my foliage blog and once again be a comment to win.
Questions? leave me a comment!Jeff "Foliage" Folger You can purchase images by visiting my Fine Art Gallery websites
- My Gallery on Fine Art America
- Visit my Art and stock images on Vistaphotography
- *NEW* We created a new Fall foliage forum
- Join my New England Fall Foliage page on Facebook
- Follow @Foliage_Reports on Twitter
but people call me Jeff Foliage.
I have several pages that I write blogs for such as: http://www.4cornersnewengland.com/
My most popular blog is for Leaf peepers: Jeff Foliage.com.
I live in Salem, Massachusetts and work as a blogger and Travel Photographer. I'm also the founder of the New England Photography Guild.
Feel free to visit me on my blogs and see what life in New England is like.
I started with Yankee Magazine as their first blogger on everything fall foliage. Now I blog on my own blog on my favorite subject, telling leaf peepers where the fall foliage is showing up in New England and helping them (to some extent) plan their fall foliage vacations.