2016 February forecast update
Well February is at an end and in about 20 days it will be the first day of spring. Thanks to Punxsutawney Phil, who has forecast this early spring. when I look out my window, at least today, I see rain and a few melting piles of snow. Depending on where we look in New England, I’ll have to agree with Phil, the forecast is looking like an early spring… (knock on wood)
El Niño, ENSO Neutral, or La Niña
Before your head explodes, these terms are conditions that influence our weather on a daily basis. If you are interested in checking them out then click the link for NOAA in the next sentence, if not don’t worry, I’ll try not to geek out on the weather talk too much. I’ve checked with the folks at NOAA and they are saying we’re on the leeward or downward side of El Niño and heading for what they call ENSO Neutral. (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) As we move out and towards this neutral position we should see temperatures that are close to historic norms.
As we go through the summer we’ll have to see how far we go into this neutral phase or do we go through or past the neutral mark. I would want to see us not go into La Niña and stay neutral. This way we only have to worry about rain. If the water temps in the Pacific drop down below the neutral baseline, we could end up in a La Niña condition.
La Niña and what it can lead to…
It’s very hard to see what Oct will bring and some of it will be determined by whether we stay neutral or go into a “La Niña” condition. I’m not going to go into the science between these effects; except they are always happening and you may or may not be aware of them.
To keep it simple we want things to stay balanced. If we go too big on a El Niño OR La Niña then we tend to get really dramatic weather. (not always good) La Niña tends to involve more hurricanes in the Atlantic (Think Irene in Aug, 2011 and Sandy in Oct, 2012). Both times we were in a La Niña condition.
What can we expect for this fall?
As of today the outlook for August/September/October looks like these chart from NOAA.
Right now the forecast for the autumn is still very soft and hard to call but if I have to call it, I will lean towards a “good fall foliage season“. If we stay in the neutral range then it could be a great fall foliage season. If we drop into a La Niña condition, then we might get a little more rain and warm temps then we’d like to see and we may see an unsettled pattern of weather coming through New England.
So you will have to stop back in and catch up here with what the coming autumn holds for us.
Homework for all of you!
I want all of you to think nice neutral thoughts but with the coming elections across the USA this year, that may be difficult. I want you to think of this as the fall foliage party and we’re all about bi-partisan (neutral) thinking… J We all want to work together and create teamwork towards this common goal of a beautiful fall foliage season.
This closes out my fall foliage forecast update for February 2016. I know I don’t have a lot of sold decision making information for you but with the information that we have right now, it’s the best I can do.Jeff "Foliage" Folger You can purchase images by visiting my Fine Art Gallery websites
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but people call me Jeff Foliage.
I have several pages that I write blogs for such as: http://www.4cornersnewengland.com/
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I live in Salem, Massachusetts and work as a blogger and Travel Photographer. I'm also the founder of the New England Photography Guild.
Feel free to visit me on my blogs and see what life in New England is like.
I started with Yankee Magazine as their first blogger on everything fall foliage. Now I blog on my own blog on my favorite subject, telling leaf peepers where the fall foliage is showing up in New England and helping them (to some extent) plan their fall foliage vacations.