2016 Foliage Update for June
Welcome to your 2016 foliage update for the month of June. (It’s only 89 days till the first day of autumn!)
I’ve been looking over the new NOAA climate prediction site (find it here) and while we are heading towards La Niña (75% chance) it looks like we’ll still see a warm autumn. What this means…
Plain talk 2016 foliage update
I’ve been scratching my head trying to figure out what exactly La Niña is going to do for/to us or what El Niño has done to us as far as the upcoming 2016 foliage season. (might be why I’m mostly bald at this time) 🙂 Right now it looks like we’ll be warmer than average and drier than average or at least not overly wet in autumn.
I usually hit the Kancamagus Highway around 18 September to get a feel for what the fall color is doing. Usually at this time of September we have only about 5 to 10% color along route 112 through the white mountains. If I were a betting man and you all know that I like to take a guess at what we’re going to see, I think that 5 to 10% along the Kanc will be closer to 22-25 September.
I think we’ll be seeing about a 5 day delay of bright colors but unless something bad happens they WILL! arrive. Here are a couple of thoughts on NH, VT and ME for expected dates.
In northern New Hampshire
It’s a very long haul to get up above the White mountains so I tend to wait for 1 Oct. I find Route 2 can be very pretty by this time and I will look at Routes 3 and 302 and 16 as well. I might also head from there to Maine near Rangeley Lake to see what it looks like out that way.
I think it’ll be around 1 October before the Northeast kingdom starts getting really good color and if you’re looking for the fall color at the Jenne farm in Woodstock Vermont then I don’t think it’ll be arriving there any earlier than 10-15 October. (almost normal but look for cooler temps to speed up the process!)
Maine fall colors
I think Maine will have good fall color North of Greenville by 1 October but it will be slower to arrive South of Greenville Maine. I have a friend up at the cozy Moose cabins in Greenville Maine and she and her son keep me advised on what the fall colors are doing in her neighborhood. So when she tells me that Greenville is turning, I’ll let you know.
Are you a hard-core leaf peeper or more Laissez–faire?
Depending on how you classify yourself will decide how happy you will be. those folks who show up and are happy with most any fall color amounts they find then they are going to be pretty happy this fall. For the professional photographer or hard-core leaf paper looking for the mythical “peak” fall foliage then nothing I say here will make them happy.
The reason that hard-core leaf peepers are seldom happy, is that they are looking for all the trees to turn at the same time. It’s true that this happens once in a while but generally I find one or more trees jump early, then a week or so later the rest join in.
I think this is the “norm”
90% of the time I see a spread in the start of the color, where:
- a few trees are bare
- a bunch of trees are just coming into color
- a few are at “peak”
- and another bunch are at a very pleasant, just past “peak”
Basically if you arrive in September, between 18th and the 30th, you’ll be catching the early color where the majority of the trees are just turning.
The benefit of catching the trees at this time is if we get windy days mixed with a little rain, it may not bring down the leaves. After the leaves have reached their “peak” of fall color (or past peak), they tend to have a weaker connection to the tree and are more prone to fall to the ground.
Past performance does not predict future dates of great fall color
Just because you showed up two years ago and found great color on 3 October, in Stowe Vermont, it does not mean that this year on 3 October, it will be repeated.
Everything I post here is general guidance only and also my opinion. Every single year since I arrived in New England, I’ve been surprised many times as to when and where I find the fall color.
It’s true that I have been looking at it for 15 years and I like to think I have a pretty good grasp of wind and where to look. In the end though, mother nature keeps the schedule to her self and never shows it to me.. 🙂
I’m not sure what my overall average is but since no one has complained lately, I can’t be doing too bad and mother nature hasn’t made anyone too angry with my fall foliage forecasts.
Tips for beating mother nature at the fall foliage game
Yes these are link to other of my articles but maybe you haven’t read all my articles and these might be helpful.
- How early will you find peak fall foliage in New England?
- How I plan my fall foliage vacation
- Vermont’s twistiest scenic autumn drive
- Simple rules to finding a room during autumn
- 4 Rules for planning your fall foliage trip
All of these and many more can be found up on the menu line under Foliage articles. From the pull down you will be able to find a ton of ideas and my thoughts on these subjects.
Jeff "Foliage" Folger You can purchase images by visiting my Fine Art Gallery websites
- My Gallery on Fine Art America
- *NEW* We created a new Fall foliage forum
- Join my New England Fall Foliage page on Facebook
- Follow @Foliage_Reports on Twitter
but people call me Jeff Foliage.
I have several pages that I write blogs for such as: http://www.4cornersnewengland.com/
My most popular blog is for Leaf peepers: Jeff Foliage.com.
I live in Salem, Massachusetts and work as a blogger and Travel Photographer. I'm also the founder of the New England Photography Guild.
Feel free to visit me on my blogs and see what life in New England is like.
I started with Yankee Magazine as their first blogger on everything fall foliage. Now I blog on my own blog on my favorite subject, telling leaf peepers where the fall foliage is showing up in New England and helping them (to some extent) plan their fall foliage vacations.