Late July has arrived and this is my…
July Fall Foliage Forecast
The reports are in and they look, interesting. The first section will be some of the data and my thoughts on it, you can skip straight to the bottom for my final analysis (or best guess) on what this fall holds for you, my leaf peepers.
First, they say this…
Weak or no El Niño going into winter
Then, they say this…
“During a warm episode winter, mid-latitude low-pressure systems tend to be more vigorous than normal in the region of the eastern North Pacific. These systems pump abnormally warm air into western Canada, Alaska and the extreme northern portion of the contiguous United States. Storms also tend to be more vigorous in the Gulf of Mexico and along the southeast coast of the United States resulting in wetter than normal conditions in that region.”
“In response, a weatherman said you can forget the the fleece, it’ll be a warm fall”
I’ve looked at the NOAA climate prediction site and yes, it may be a few degrees above normal but face it, I’ve heard the same thing for the past 5 years and autumn still shows up. (this was last year)
According to the data, the weak El Niño will continue into winter and do you know what that means? me neither but I thought I’d check with you… 🙂
What it means is this
August into November will be slightly above normal (not what I’d like to hear) and precipitation will be average for this time of year but not overly rainy… I can live with that.
I looked back at 2012 and we were between El Niño to weak El Niño and by fall we were in a weak La Niña. Do you care what these El Niño and La Niña are? They refer to the water surface temps in the Pacific that influence our weather. In 2012 we had a sporadic cool off in Sept which helped bring on the fall colors like gang busters.
This created really nice fall colors. So if we don’t break new records for high temps in Sept to Oct we’ll be ok. The climate folks say the temperatures will fall as we go into November and December. It might also lead to a very hard winter in New England.
That’s NOT! What I want to see but even that has a silver lining. Hard winters kill ticks and mosquitos and that is good for the moose and deer populations. I still have to drive in it, so I’m not looking forward to that part. 🙁
The bottom line is…
Wait I’m not done yet. We had a very damp winter and up in northern Vermont, farm and field have been so wet as to kill crops before they can be brought in. This can be deadly for Maples and it causes Anthracnose to thrive. This causes the leaves to curl up and fall prematurely.
How wide spread this is anyone’s guess at this moment. I’m watching for reports in my friends around New England to see what they are seeing. So far no one is seeing much evidence but the jury is still out.
The Bottom line is…
Ok now for the real bottom line and what to expect… The past week has been cool in New England, How cool? I put on fleece this morning to enjoy my morning coffee (Sunny and 58 degrees). The firebush that I pass by on my evening walk, start turning last Tuesday(ish).
Also, I looked out my back door the other afternoon and saw red. I was seeing red where I don’t expect it, was it a cardinal in the tree? No, it was a sumac with a few bright red leaves. Don’t worry late July to August normal to see a few leaves turn orange/red.
The New England fall foliage is on track for what could be a bright season. If the rain stays low during the September time frame and we get 15-20 days of bright sunshine from Sept into October, then I would say it could be spectacular. IF, and I say IF, Anthracnose becomes an issue then you will have to move your feet to another location.
The state forest rangers tell me that we have a certain amount every year. This year will be no different but I’m hoping that it will be sporadic and easy to find other locations to see your fall colors.
So we are looking good so far and I’m keeping a weather eye to the sky and on the trees, waiting for those fall colors to come marching south from Canada!Jeff "Foliage" Folger You can purchase images by visiting my Fine Art Gallery websites
- My Gallery on Fine Art America
- Try out the new Fall foliage forum
- Join my New England Fall Foliage page on Facebook
- Follow @Foliage_Reports on Twitter
- Follow me on Instagram @Jeff_Foliage
but people call me Jeff Foliage.
I have several pages that I write blogs for such as: http://www.4cornersnewengland.com/
My most popular blog is for Leaf peepers: Jeff Foliage.com.
I live in Salem, Massachusetts and work as a blogger and Travel Photographer. I'm also the founder of the New England Photography Guild.
Feel free to visit me on my blogs and see what life in New England is like.
I started with Yankee Magazine as their first blogger on everything fall foliage. Now I blog on my own blog on my favorite subject, telling leaf peepers where the fall foliage is showing up in New England and helping them (to some extent) plan their fall foliage vacations.