Well, this should be my last fall foliage forecast and from here out should be foliage reports. I’ve been hearing talk about early fall color and one weatherman was saying this was one of the cooler Augusts on record. So between those two conversations, I’ve been looking around some more.
Could we be having an early fall foliage season?
I’ve made another check with the NOAA climate prediction folks and I spent a fair bit of this evening looking at the actual and historical temps for this August and past years as well. I looked at these following areas in VT, NH and ME for August 2017 (also the month isn’t over yet)
- Dixville Notch NH, 1-25 August 2017
22 out of 25 days have lows that are below 59 degrees and of those, 10 days are in the 40’s.
- Jay VT, 1-25 August 2017
22 out of 25 days have lows that below 59 degrees and of those, 2 days in the 40’s
- Greenville Maine, 1-25 August 2017
17 out of 25 days have lows that are below 59 degrees and of those, only one was in the 40’s.
Then I compared these to 2016 and what I found was that they are pretty much in line with last year. The big difference was the drought of 2016. I was thinking/hearing that the temps in August were a lot cooler than previous years. We may be down a few degrees here or there but for the most part, I’m seeing New England on par with past years.
For September, in places like those listed above, I expect to see the evening lows from Sept 1st through the 15th consistently in the 40s or upper 30s. From the 15th of Sept to 30th Sept, I would expect to see them consistently in the 30s. These should be the norms for much of northern New England for this coming September. (fingers crossed)
I’m more worried about the sun!
No, I’m not talking about the eclipse or sun spots… I’m just thinking about the overall amount of sunlight. The scientists say that the more sun we receive the brighter the colors. Well, it’s at least a part of the equation. When we have a drier September with a good amount of sunshine and lower temps, the outcome is beautiful fall colors.
The temps will fluctuate from day-to-day but to me, of even more critical nature, is the amount of sunshine. But I could be off a bit as to how important. I was looking at the historical data for Dixville Notch and I wonder how the leaves ever change! It seems that historically, during past September’s, they have more than ¾ of the days with cloudy or rainy weather and October is only a little better. (as seen in the above image)
But the sun does show itself and the fall colors do turn. If you are like me and you check the local weather stations (weather underground has historical data) and it seems that even though I always say that more sunny days are better, the fall colors still do change even when the majority of the days are cloudy.
Yankee Magazine says…
Jim Salge over at Yankee is optimistic that the trees are happy and this year should be a great fall foliage year. Up to a point, I agree with them (I’m a glass is half empty kind of guy). But I do think the odds are with us and if mother nature can kick those low temps into gear and give us more sunny days in Sept and October, then this will turn out to be a serious leaf peeper, dream year!Jeff "Foliage" Folger You can purchase images by visiting my Fine Art Gallery websites
- My Gallery on Fine Art America
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but people call me Jeff Foliage.
I have several pages that I write blogs for such as: http://www.4cornersnewengland.com/
My most popular blog is for Leaf peepers: Jeff Foliage.com.
I live in Salem, Massachusetts and work as a blogger and Travel Photographer. I'm also the founder of the New England Photography Guild.
Feel free to visit me on my blogs and see what life in New England is like.
I started with Yankee Magazine as their first blogger on everything fall foliage. Now I blog on my own blog on my favorite subject, telling leaf peepers where the fall foliage is showing up in New England and helping them (to some extent) plan their fall foliage vacations.